Middle East uncertainty threatens global economic recovery

The Middle East is once again facing growing uncertainty, with consequences extending far beyond the region. As the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran comes under renewed strain, attention has shifted back to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategic energy choke points. Around 20 percent of global oil shipments and one-fifth of LNG trade passed through the waterway before the conflict, meaning any further disruptions will send more shock waves through energy markets, global supply chains and consumer prices. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3 percent, warning that geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices continue to pose major downside risks to the global economy. From energy prices to household budgets, from business investment to global growth, the ripple effects are being felt around the world.