Dialogue over deterrence: experiences from ASEAN-China relations

In contemporary discourse, Asia is frequently identified as a region with considerable potential for future geopolitical flash points.

Beyond its profound cultural, religious and political diversity, the continent encompasses several unresolved territorial disputes that could escalate into interstate conflict. Among these, the South China Sea dispute — implicating multiple ASEAN member states and China — stands out as one of the most complex and strategically consequential.

That the South China Sea continues to figure prominently in both academic and policy discourses is therefore not surprising. The United States, which has long regarded Southeast Asia as a pivotal element of its strategic domain, has grown increasingly apprehensive about China's expanding political and economic influence within the region.

Historically, overlapping territorial claims have been among the most frequent precursors to interstate wars. The protracted conflict between Israel and Palestine exemplifies how such disputes can evolve into enduring armed confrontation.

The persistence of that conflict, to a considerable extent, stems from the United States' consistent policy of shielding Israel from United Nations Security Council sanctions, despite China and the majority of UN member states consistently expressing support for Palestine.

The South China Sea region is, however, distinct from most conflict-prone regions. Over the past three decades, ASEAN and China have managed not only to maintain regional stability but also to deepen their economic and political integration. For example, in 1991, total trade between ASEAN and China was less than $10 billion; in 2025, the total value of trade between China and ASEAN reached 7.55 trillion yuan ($1.11 trillion). There are several key factors behind this.

First, since its establishment in 1967, ASEAN has been a relatively peaceful region, with few — if any — major conflicts among its member states.

The aspiration to develop Southeast Asia as a zone of peace and stability was formally articulated in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, signed in 1976. The TAC enshrined universal principles of peaceful coexistence and encouraged cooperation grounded in equality and mutual respect. This commitment is evident in ASEAN's approach to managing the South China Sea dispute.

Over time, ASEAN and China have developed formal mechanisms to mitigate escalation and foster dialogue.

China became the first ASEAN dialogue partner to accede to the TAC in 2003, thereby signaling its commitment to the treaty's core principles — peaceful coexistence and non-violent dispute resolution. This step demonstrated China's intention to strengthen political trust and promote regional stability across Southeast Asia.

Second, since the emergence of divergent positions concerning the South China Sea, ASEAN and China have consistently prioritized dialogue as the primary mechanism for peacefully resolving the disputes.

The Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, adopted in 2002, established an essential normative framework for the management of tensions and the promotion of mutual restraint.

The subsequent adoption of a single draft of the Code of Conduct in 2018 marked a significant step forward in institutionalizing dialogue-based conflict management. Furthermore, in 2023, under Indonesia's ASEAN chairmanship, both parties endorsed the Guidelines for Accelerating the Early Conclusion of an Effective and Substantive Code of Conduct, reaffirming their shared commitment to maintaining regional stability through sustained dialogue, confidence-building, and cooperative engagement.

Third, although tensions have periodically emerged among the claimants in the South China Sea, the absence of military confrontation over the past three decades underscores a deeply embedded norm of restraint.

As Amitav Acharya, a distinguished professor of international relations, emphasizes in Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia: ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order, ASEAN's success in maintaining regional stability has not been predicated upon military deterrence but rather upon the institutionalization of diplomatic practices — most notably restraint and reassurance — within the framework of regional norms.

These behavioral patterns have cultivated a political environment in which conflicts are addressed through dialogue, communication, and mutual accommodation rather than through coercion or the use of force.

Fourth, to elucidate this phenomenon, the concept of common knowledge — as articulated by Harvard cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker in his book When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows — provides a valuable analytical framework.

Pinker conceptualizes common knowledge as a condition in which individuals not only possess awareness of a fact but also recognize that others share this awareness, and further understand that such mutual recognition is itself shared.

Within this theoretical context, the ASEAN-China Comprehensive Strategic Partnership may be interpreted as a Common-Knowledge Stability Pact, which functions as a recursive and collective public commitment to peaceful coexistence: each actor understands that stability is mutually advantageous and simultaneously acknowledges that all other actors hold this same understanding. This shared cognitive foundation consolidates mutual expectations of cooperative behavior, thereby reinforcing the durability of regional order and stability.

The ASEAN-China experiences in navigating the dynamics of the South China Sea offer critical lessons for sustaining regional order. Chief among these is the recognition that in territorial disputes, the consistent observance and implementation of established agreements are fundamental prerequisites for lasting peace.

The sustainability of regional peace is contingent upon the absence of external interference. The deliberate avoidance of proxy involvement by any ASEAN member state in major power rivalries against China has played a pivotal role in upholding regional stability.

Stability requires reciprocal responsibility from both ASEAN and China. It is particularly noteworthy that China — whose military capabilities rival only those of the US — has demonstrated a consistent preference for dialogue and peaceful means in addressing its territorial disputes with ASEAN states. While the future of the South China Sea remains uncertain, the achievements of ASEAN-China relations over the past three-plus decades provide grounds for cautious optimism.

As the saying goes, the past cannot be changed, but the future can be shaped. If ASEAN and China continue to cultivate the habits of peace, dialogue, and restraint, the region is likely to remain a bastion of stability amid an increasingly fragmented global order. The future envisioned by both ASEAN and China — a future characterized by peace, stability, and shared prosperity — may serve as a replicable model for regions grappling with overlapping territorial claims, strategic rivalries, and divergent national interests.

The author is the Head of the ASEAN-China Research Center at the University of Indonesia and a Qiushi Scholar at the National Institute of Ethics and Moral Practice, Renmin University of China.

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