Forward-looking paradigm

Through institutionalization, the bilateral consensus on a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability can be implemented as a sustainably operational mechanism

Year 2026 marks a significant nodal point for both China and the United States, coinciding with China's launch of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) and the 250th anniversary of the US' independence.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is paying a state visit to the US from Sept 23 to 25.

US President Donald Trump's state visit to China in May signaled a critical transition from the "strategic competition" paradigm toward a new framework for bilateral relations. The summit's core consensus was the principled agreement to build a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability. This reflects a mutual strategic will to manage risks, maintain regional stability and promote pragmatic cooperation. Notably, while the US defines stability conditionally — "based on fairness and reciprocity" — China advocates a more coexistence-oriented conception of stability, positioning it as a systematic, long-term strategic framework for bilateral ties.

The constructive relationship of strategic stability is a theoretical concept upgraded across three dimensions.

The first dimension is bottom-line stability, which is understood as conflict prevention and crisis management, and addresses cognitive misperceptions among strategic elites that may pose a greater risk of triggering conflicts than actual capability gaps.

The second dimension is functional stability, which involves constructive cooperation in specific issue areas and transcends negative "non-conflict" to produce cooperative value in areas possessing global public goods attributes.

The third dimension is normative stability, which is understood as the joint management of the international order.

China and the US share fundamental strategic interests in multilateral frameworks and global public goods, despite conceptual competition.

Moreover, the framework manifests itself in four aspects of stability.

First, it is a form of "positive stability" with cooperation as the mainstay, actively supporting bilateral relations through cooperation on the global economy, public health and regional hotspots.

Second, it is a form of "sound stability" with moderate competition, ensuring standard major-country competition while establishing clear boundaries, rules and red lines, and restricting competition to the economic, technological, and institutional domains rather than allowing it to escalate into military confrontation or bloc-based rivalry.

Third, it is a form of "constant stability" with manageable differences, which recognizes disagreements across issues as a "constant" feature of bilateral relations while establishing crisis-management mechanisms to prevent these disagreements from becoming a destabilizing variable, thereby enabling both sides to "compete without breaking, harmonizing in diversity".

Last, it is a form of "enduring stability" with promises of peace, rejecting the "Thucydides Trap" as destiny and believing that long-term peaceful coexistence is achievable through strategic communication and shared interests.

During the summit on May 14, President Xi posed three progressive "questions of our time". The "question vital to history" asks whether both nations can escape fatalism, emphasizing that the "Thucydides Trap" stems from strategic misjudgments rather than destiny. The "question vital to the world" demands that major countries fulfill their responsibilities — as the two nations account for about 40 percent of global GDP, their hostile division would cause global fragmentation. The "question vital to the people" returns to public well-being, taking history as a mirror, the world as a responsibility and the people as the foundation. The constructive relationship of strategic stability answers these questions by transcending the "strategic competition" theory. Unlike previous administrations that subordinated cooperation to competition management, the framework endows "stability" with independent, normative strategic value.

The framework yielded concrete policy outcomes during the US president's visit. In the economic and trade domain, the tariff truce was extended, trade tensions eased and bilateral boards of trade and investment were established to institutionalize dialogues and manage issues. As President Xi noted in 2021, "the most important event in international relations over the past 50 years was the reopening and development of China-US relations, which has benefited the two countries and the whole world. The most important event in international relations in the coming 50 years will be for China and the US to find the right way to get along." The framework provides the most forward-looking theoretical answer to this historical proposition.

The framework can be implemented as a sustainably operating mechanism through institutionalized construction. It establishes a new paradigm of competition without disorder, gaming without losing control, proactively designing institutional arrangements to guide unavoidable structural tensions onto a predictable, controllable and sustainable track.

This institutionalized construction can develop across three indispensable levels.

At the strategic level, both nations can clarify red lines and translate consensus into actionable policy frameworks. Normalized military, diplomatic and economic exchanges, alongside regular high-level strategic dialogues, are essential to reduce cognitive misjudgments — the true root causes of the "Thucydides Trap".

At the rule-construction level, China and the US can jointly participate in formulating international rules for emerging sectors, such as artificial intelligence, outer space and cyberspace, where rule vacuums and conflict risks are high. These rules will constrain competitive behaviors and serve as an institutional bond to unify both sides. Likewise, institutionalized communication channels, such as economic and trade working groups, should achieve standardized coordination to steadily expand bilateral trade and elevate the quality of the overall cooperation.

Last but not least, at the functional-cooperation level, the sustained advancement of concrete projects can deepen interdependence and raise the opportunity cost of confrontation. Especially at the level of cultural and people-to-people exchanges, it is the mutual understanding and friendly relations between the peoples that determine whether the bilateral relationship will be stable and sustainable in the long run. As long as both sides maintain close engagement and people-to-people ties endure, China-US relations can overcome temporary difficulties and achieve steady, sustained long-term progress.

The author is a tenured full professor at the School of International Studies and executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding both at Peking University.

The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.