Xi's US visit fuels European discussions over prospects for China-US stability

President Xi Jinping's state visit to the United States and his remarks at a welcome ceremony at the White House have sparked wide discussion in Europe over the future of China-US relations and what a more stable relationship between the world's two largest economies could mean for Europe.

At the welcome ceremony on Thursday, Xi called on China and the United States to strengthen communication, cooperate with sincerity, and coexist in peace, saying that the two countries must hold the line of no conflict and no confrontation.

Shada Islam, founder and director of the Brussels-based think tank New Horizons Project, said there is now more room for a stable and predictable China-US relationship than there was at the height of the recent tariff and technology disputes.

"I foresee more managed competition," she said, adding that such an outcome would still be positive "if it can be sustained".

Islam said trade and technology, particularly artificial intelligence, are likely to remain central to the bilateral relationship, adding that stronger people-to-people exchanges could provide another important source of stability.

Xi announced at the White House ceremony that China will invite 100,000 young Americans to visit China for exchanges and study over the next five years. He also said giant pandas Ping Ping and Fu Shuang will soon arrive at Zoo Atlanta, describing the giant panda as "an envoy of friendship" between the two peoples.

Edouard Xia, a researcher at the Université catholique de Louvain, said the signals surrounding Xi's visit and speech suggested that both Beijing and Washington were seeking to improve the relationship.

"I think we are at a very singular moment, when we see clear signals from both the People's Republic of China and the United States of America that they are trying to improve their relationship," Xia said.

Xia called for more official communication channels aimed at preventing miscalculations, along with common rules in areas where unmanaged competition could create greater risks. AI could become one such field, he said.

Mark Logan, a former member of the UK Parliament, also highlighted the distinction between competition and confrontation, saying competition could encourage countries and economies to become more innovative and make greater efforts.

He said that the two countries should avoid the "Thucydides Trap" of a rising power and an established power coming into conflict.

Xia said AI is simultaneously one of the most important areas of China-US technological competition and a field in which the two sides have reasons to cooperate, particularly in managing risks.

"There is a deep understanding by both governments that, at some point, they need to agree on what common regulation of AI would look like," he said, adding that formal communication on AI could help reduce the risk of miscalculation, including in sensitive security areas, while differences between the two countries' approaches to the technology mean that reaching common rules will not be easy.

Significance for Europe

For Europe, the significance of a more stable China-US relationship extends well beyond the bilateral relationship itself.

Logan said Europe and the UK should take particular note of the recent signs of greater engagement between Beijing and Washington and seek more cooperation with China themselves.

He said the implications go beyond Europe, noting that many countries do not want to be forced to choose between China and the United States.

Xia likewise said greater stability between China and the US would generally make other countries "feel more at ease", given the extent to which competition between the two powers shapes the international system.

Islam said Europe and China may find more space to advance their own agendas, such as on climate and digital regulation, she said.

For that opportunity to be realized, however, both the European Union and China need to take "a cool-headed approach" to resolving their disputes, Islam said.