Openness, partnership redefining growth

China's official economic figures for 2025 tell a story of disciplined execution rather than accidental success. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China delivered 5 percent year-on-year GDP growth in 2025, which was in line with the nation's preset annual target of around 5 percent growth and marked continued resilience amid global headwinds.

The economy surpassed the 140 trillion yuan mark ($20.26 trillion)for the first time last year, a symbolic threshold that reinforces Beijing's emphasis on stable growth and sustainable economic expansion.

While the 5 percent growth rate appears uniform at the aggregate level, quarterly data reveals a more nuanced internal dynamic. Output expanded in the first three quarters by 5.4 percent, 5.2 percent and 4.8 percent year-on-year, respectively, before easing to 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter as domestic demand softened. This trajectory points to a growth model anchored in calibrated industrial support and external demand rather than broad-based or speculative stimulus.

Indeed, foreign trade was a standout contributor. According to customs statistics released in January, China's total import and export value reached a record 45.47 trillion yuan, growing 3.8 percent year-on-year and marking nine consecutive years of trade expansion. Exports alone rose 6.1 percent to 26.99 trillion yuan, while imports reached 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5 percent.

China's export performance cannot be dissociated from the broader geopolitical economy. Western markets, particularly the United States, have tightened access through tariffs and trade restrictions. Despite exports to the US declining, China was able to maintain overall export growth by deepening penetration into other major markets, such as Latin America, Africa and other emerging regions.

This distributional shift reflects a policy necessity. The pivot toward emerging markets emerged from policy consideration for trade diversification and resilience; it is also a natural outcome of strengthened South-South cooperation. Notably, China implemented zero-tariff treatment on all tariff lines for least-developed countries with diplomatic ties, a unilateral move that helps lower barriers and expand South-South trade ties.

Data suggests that China's imports from developing countries and other partners expanded sharply, with certain categories such as coffee and cocoa seeing double-digit gains early in 2025. This is evidence of changing trade flows shaped by policy.

Behind the aggregate GDP figure, the internal composition of China's economy paints a nuanced picture. Consumption, which contributed over 52 percent of GDP growth, remained soft, reflecting broader global demand weakness and, domestically, cautious consumer sentiment. Fixed-asset investment declined 3.8 percent, a reminder that traditional capital-intensive drivers are no longer the default engine of growth.

In contrast, industrial output grew by 5.9 percent, and high-tech exports and "new quality productive forces" sectors received renewed emphasis as part of the leadership's narrative on innovation-led growth. Such sectors feature advanced productivity freed from traditional economic growth patterns and productivity development paths. They are noted for high tech, high efficiency and high quality, and are in accordance with China's new development philosophy.

The implications extend beyond borders. In an era when advanced economies are oscillating between protectionism and near-recessionary dynamics, China's external engagement approach provides a contrasting model by leveraging trade openness to absorb external shocks while expanding economic ties with the Global South. This approach aligns with data showing that China became the major trade partner for more than 160 countries and regions in 2025.

For Africa, these trends hold clear ramifications. Tariff-free access cuts cost barriers for African exporters, enhancing competitiveness and integrating them more deeply into global value chains.

In a world grappling with fragmentation, China offers an alternative narrative — growth through openness, diversification through partnership and a globalization that acknowledges emerging markets not as afterthoughts but as co-drivers of economic dynamism. That narrative redefines where growth occurs and how it is shared.

The author is executive director of South-South Dialogues, a Nairobi, Kenya-based think tank.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.