ODI set for steady growth in 2026

Driven by industrial restructuring and rising demand for cost-efficient solutions in many sectors, overseas markets will continue to show a strong appetite for China's outbound direct investment, or ODI, in 2026, especially in high-end manufacturing, services and infrastructure construction sectors, said industry observers and business leaders.

They said that despite regional conflicts, trade tensions and geopolitical risks, Asia, Latin America and parts of Europe remain compelling destinations for Chinese investors due to their complementary industrial structures, expanding consumer markets and strong demand for infrastructure modernization.

Liu Xiangdong, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that many economies in these regions are accelerating energy transition, digital connectivity and urban development, creating sustained demand for cost-effective engineering, smart manufacturing and green technologies, areas in which Chinese companies hold competitive advantages.

Echoing that view, Li Jun, a researcher at the Beijing-based Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, said that amid rising risks of global supply chain reconfiguration, domestic economic development is increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical shifts, underscoring the urgent need to enhance resilience and risk-mitigation capacity.

"The expanding scale and improving composition of the ODI indicate that China's capital, technology and brands are steadily going global. Chinese businesses could overcome domestic growth constraints and cushion potential external shocks, building more resilient and sustainable competitive advantages," said Li.

China's non-financial ODI grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year to $145.66 billion in 2025, while the country's non-financial ODI in Africa, Europe and Asia increased by 41 percent, 20.9 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, data from the Ministry of Commerce show.

Sherri He, managing director for China of Kearney, a United States-based management consulting firm, said as global markets grow more complex and consumer needs evolve at a greater speed, Chinese businesses need to move decisively beyond short-term opportunism and adopt a long-term perspective.

"Sustainable globalization calls for a comprehensive strategic redesign, underpinned by an integrated operating model focused on brand strength, channel excellence, product innovation and regulatory compliance," said He.

"At the same time, as their international footprint expands, companies need to embed proactive and systematic risk management into their global operations," she said, adding that this entails establishing dynamic, end-to-end frameworks to identify, assess and respond to risks, safeguard overseas assets and ensure operational resilience amid uncertainty.

He said that only by combining systematic capability building with robust risk governance can Chinese companies lay a solid foundation for growth in a new era defined by both opportunity and challenge, and ultimately realize high-quality, sustainable global expansion.

Beyond building manufacturing facilities abroad, many Chinese companies are optimizing global resources and creating local jobs.

For example, Chinese tech company Huawei Technologies Co has set up design centers in France, contract-negotiation and software research and development centers in India, and a bid-management center in Malaysia.

Chinese companies have built differentiated advantages with global competitiveness in areas such as "China speed", supply chain resilience, cost efficiency, engineering talent and continually strengthening innovation capabilities, said Denis Depoux, global managing director of Roland Berger, a Munich-headquartered management consultancy.

These strengths are the key factors behind their success in the domestic market, he said.

Against this backdrop, Chinese companies are deepening cooperation with key overseas markets and tailoring products to local demand.

Zhu Jingcheng, CEO of Fox ESS Co, a Wenzhou, Zhejiang province-based electrical power equipment manufacturer, said that current opportunities in China–Germany economic ties are increasingly shifting toward emerging sectors, notably artificial intelligence and green industries, where both sides see significant scope to deepen cooperation.

Ranked second by market share in Germany's residential energy storage market in the first half of 2025, Zhu said his company will provide more customized products to its German clients in the years ahead as the country accelerates its push toward an energy transition.