West Coast ports brace for uncertainty after US tariff ruling

The twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — America's busiest gateway for trans-Pacific trade — are facing renewed volatility after the US Supreme Court struck down most of the tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed under emergency powers. 

While the ruling offers a brief window of relief for some importers, port executives, economists and logistics operators say it has also introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty to an already fragile US-China trade environment.

The 6-3 Supreme Court decision concluded that the Trump administration exceeded its authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law that lets presidents regulate certain economic transactions during declared national emergencies — but does not authorize tariffs. The tariffs, imposed last April, affected hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of goods from China and other major trading partners and have shaped pricing and sourcing decisions across the supply chain for nearly a year.

At the Port of Long Beach, chief executive Noel Hacegaba said the ruling may ultimately help stabilize trade flows, but the immediate effect has been a wave of new questions for shippers. "I hope the ruling brings greater certainty to the supply chain," he said in a statement. "For now, the only certainty is more uncertainty."

The port handled 9.9 million TEUs last year and hopes to move at least 9 million containers again in 2026, but now has to adjust to changing tariff rules and sudden shifts in how shippers plan their cargo.

At the neighboring Port of Los Angeles, executive director Gene Seroka echoed that sentiment. The nation's largest container port ended last year with 10.2 million TEUs, but began 2026 with a 13 percent year-over-year drop in imports for January, a decline Seroka linked partly to tariff-driven decisions by cargo owners late last year. 

"Each time there's a policy statement or adjustment out of Washington, we see immediate stops and starts across the supply chain," Seroka said during a recent Port of LA cargo briefing. "This ruling will affect two-thirds of the tariffs that have been collected to date and will open new avenues of uncertainty."

One of the biggest questions now is whether the federal government will refund duties already paid by importers. The Treasury Department has collected roughly $130 billion under IEEPA tariffs. 

"There is not yet clarity on whether there will be refunds," Seroka said. "Second, the administration has already announced a new 10 percent global tariff in the wake of the ruling with no indication as to when that will take effect." Cargo owners, he added, now have to make rapid decisions about whether certain commodities can be shipped tariff-free while the window remains open.

This renewed uncertainty is emerging at a delicate moment for the Southern California port complex. While Los Angeles and Long Beach together handle nearly one-third of the nation's containerized imports, cargo markets entering 2026 remain fragile. US consumer confidence has fallen to an 11-year low, retail inventories remain elevated and the traditional post-Spring Festival slowdown is beginning to take hold.

Against this backdrop, it's reported that many importers of China-linked goods, from electronics components to furniture, toys and apparel, are now reconsidering pricing and shipment timing as they assess whether goods can move tariff-free before new measures take effect. 

Exports remain the greatest point of weakness, according to Seroka. "The Port of LA moved 104,000 export TEUs in January, down 8 percent year-on-year and marking its lowest export volume in nearly three years," he said. "US containerized exports to China fell 26 percent last year, with soybean shipments declining 80 percent at Los Angeles and 90 percent nationwide as Chinese buyers shifted to suppliers in Brazil and Argentina."

Despite these headwinds, Seroka emphasized that China remains the port's most important partner. "China still represents approximately 40 percent of our business, more than two and a half times our next largest trading partner," he told China Daily earlier during the annual State of the Port gathering. "There is no faster way to get cargo from China to the US than through LA. These partnerships have run deep for many decades, and we intend to continue them."