US witnessing reverse migration

The United States has been known as a "nation of immigrants" throughout its history, as foreigners who moved to the country strived to achieve the American dream of upward mobility and a better life.

For decades, the number of people who arrived in the US was more than the number who left, The Economist magazine reported. But that changed last year as more people left the country than arrived, known as negative net migration.

"We conclude that net migration was likely close to zero or negative over calendar year 2025 for the first time in at least half a century. Specifically, we estimate that net migration was between minus 10,000 and minus 295,000 for the year," said the Brookings Institution, a think tank.

By the end of 2024, net migration stood at around 2.5 to 2.8 million per year. After that, policies have changed drastically. "For the first time in 50 years, we are now seeing reverse migration as migrants go back home, leaving more housing and more jobs for Americans," the president said in a speech on Dec 17.

This year, low or negative net migration is again possible if the US administration's strict immigration policies persist, Brookings said.

But economists and Brookings warn that this trend, along with deportations, can "dampen growth in the labor force, consumer spending and gross domestic product," especially in cities such as New York.

Emily Eisner, acting executive director and chief economist at the Fiscal Policy Institute, an independent, nonpartisan think tank that advances sound and equitable fiscal policy to strengthen New York's economy, told China Daily: "Deportations and the threat of deportation are problematic for the workforce. Our research shows it also decreases the amount of international immigration into the state. Migration is also dampened significantly, which is also a problem for the labor force."

In New York City, an estimated 13 percent of all Asian and Pacific Islander immigrants are undocumented, the Mayor's Office of Immigrant Affairs said.

The last time that immigration to the US faced big challenges was during the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2020, there were lockdowns and borders were shut to stop the virus from spreading. Immigration reached normal levels in 2021 and surged from 2022 to 2024.

But 2025 "has seen dramatic changes in immigration policy, resulting in a sharp slowdown in net migration" to the US, Brookings said.

The US Department of Homeland Security estimated that there were 675,000 deportations last year and 2.2 million people who "self-deported" by leaving the country themselves.

Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff and Homeland Security adviser, has reportedly said he'd like to see "one million deportations a year", although it is not an official government policy. But he still has ambitious quotas of 3,000 arrests a day, The Washington Post reports.

Mike Fox, a legal fellow at the Cato Institute's Project on Criminal Justice, told China Daily: "Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents no longer care about arresting and deporting dangerous offenders. They care about what Stephen Miller said, which is making sure we meet quotas."

During some ICE and border patrol operations, there have been clashes with US citizens. This led to the very high-profile deaths by federal agents of Renee Good, a 37-year-old mother of three who was killed on Jan 7, and ICU nurse Alex Pretti, who was shot and killed on Jan 24.

"What we've seen is ICE clash with civilians, with US citizens," added Fox, who is an expert on overcriminalization, police accountability and coercive plea bargaining.

Another immigration route to the US is for a person to obtain a temporary work visa, such as an H-1B or a permanent resident green card. But rule changes by the DHS state that employers must now pay a $100,000 fee for some H-1B applications filed on or after Sept 21, 2025.

The number of H-1B visas issued annually is limited to 65,000, with an additional 20,000 for advanced US degree holders. And as of Feb 27, the DHS said: "A weighted selection process will increase the probability that H-1B visas are allocated to higher-skilled and higher-paid aliens."