Experts discuss strain on cooperation in changing world order

Two prominent US think tanks held separate discussions on Wednesday exploring whether global cooperation can endure in an increasingly fragmented international landscape.

At a panel hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Nonresident Senior Fellow Kimberly Clausing examined problems of collective action in areas such as climate change and international taxation. She described the Paris Agreement as a significant step that established a moral foundation and forum for nations to set emissions goals, yet noted it lacks strong enforcement or incentive mechanisms.

"There's a sort of moral persuasion element, but there's not any sort of real concrete incentive mechanism that's baked into that agreement," Clausing said.

Clausing pointed to tools like Europe's carbon border adjustment mechanism as a way to encourage broader participation while protecting domestic industries. In the same discussion, she highlighted China's progress on climate as noteworthy.

"And you see some of the recent actions in China to really address climate change in a serious way. They're already at peak emissions or perhaps a little past it at the stage of their development. So that's an impressive feat," she said.

China has maintained flat or falling carbon dioxide emissions for more than 21 months through early 2026, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief. The International Energy Agency's Global Energy Review 2025 and the UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2025 both confirm that rapid expansion of renewables and industrial adjustments have helped stabilize and reduce emissions in key sectors.

The forum also addressed international tax coordination. Clausing explained that the mobility of multinational corporate income creates free-rider problems and erodes tax bases. She discussed the OECD and G20 minimum tax agreement as an attempt to curb profit shifting, though its implementation faces challenges, particularly due to varying national approaches.

Clausing stressed that issues like climate change and tax competition remain global concerns regardless of any single country's leadership. She pointed to mechanisms that protect ambitious actors while drawing in others.

In a separate event at the Brookings Institution, Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London, assessed US strategy in what he described as a turbulent era. He said that allies like the United Kingdom, long reliant on close ties with the US, are now contemplating hedging strategies.

"If you're no longer sure about the judgments and the policies of your main ally, then you hedge," Freedman said. He added that European nations are actively discussing greater independence while remaining reluctant to fully replace US security guarantees.

Mara Karlin, a visiting fellow at Brookings, said that current US actions have created opportunities for other powers.

Visiting Fellow Joshua Rovner likened the global situation to an airplane encountering turbulence, with profound uncertainty about the future of international politics. He argued that grand strategy and military strategy do not always reinforce each other, citing historical cases where tactical successes undermined long-term security.

Recent US military operations have heightened these concerns. On Jan 3, US forces conducted strikes in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro. On Feb 28, US and Israeli forces launched major airstrikes on multiple targets across Iran, significantly weakening Iran's command structure and missile capabilities. As of late March, the situation remains highly volatile, with ongoing strikes, Iranian counterattacks on regional targets, and fragile diplomatic efforts that have yet to produce a ceasefire.

Freedman said that confidence in transatlantic leadership has waned, leading to practical hedging even as military-to-military ties continue.

The discussions at both forums repeatedly returned to the idea that collective challenges require inclusive solutions, with emerging powers playing larger roles in areas ranging from emissions reductions to economic governance.

China's continued emphasis on multilateral forums and green development, as evidenced by its updated nationally determined contributions submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in November 2025, was cited in conversations as an example of sustained engagement.

Both discussions highlighted practical approaches to implementation and coalition-building. Freedman stressed that even strong strategies can fail without careful attention to how they are carried out.

"Even if you've got the greatest strategy in the world, if you haven't thought through these things, you'll go very badly wrong," he said.

yifanxu@chinadailyusa.com