Trade shifts, but ties stay substantial, forum hears

Neither China nor the United States is seeking a complete decoupling, says Sarah Beran, a former US diplomat, during discussions on China-US trade relations at the 2026 China Town Hall program.

"Some degree of diversification in trade relationships has been actually relatively healthy, but we don't want to drive that to zero," said Beran, former deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Beijing, highlighting continued linkages between the two economies despite policy frictions and ongoing trade restructuring.

The forum, held on April 7 and hosted by the National Committee on United States-China Relations, brought together former US officials and policy observers to discuss the current state and future trajectory of US-China relations, including trade.

The discussion suggested that while tariff measures and geopolitical considerations have reshaped trade patterns, the overall economic relationship between China and the US remains deeply interconnected, with shifts occurring mainly in composition rather than total scale.

"To some extent, the subnational governments, state and local governments, are going to be the tail that wags the dog," Beran said, emphasizing the role of local-level exchanges in sustaining practical cooperation even as federal policy defines the broader framework.

Complex and uneven

Trade relations and tariff effects were a central focus of the discussion. "The direst forecasts of economists about the economic impact of these tariffs have not come true, but I think it's also early days to call this a success," former US deputy secretary of state Stephen Biegun said, noting that the overall impact remained complex and uneven across sectors and economies.

Research shows most tariff costs have been borne by US companies and consumers, rather than foreign exporters, he said.

US-China trade tensions, which began with US tariff measures introduced in 2018 and expanded in subsequent years, have been widely analyzed in economic studies.

Research has found that most of the costs were passed through to domestic prices, with US importers and consumers absorbing much of the burden.

Studies further indicate that, while tariffs aimed to reduce dependence on Chinese imports and correct trade imbalances, they also contributed to higher input costs for US manufacturers and higher prices for some consumer goods as supply chains remained deeply interconnected.

Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on US-China Relations, said recent polling shows "a generally increasingly positive view of China" among US people, reflecting gradual shifts in public sentiment.

renali@chinadailyusa.com