Solar capacity to outshine coal power in 2026

China's installed solar power capacity is expected to surpass that of coal power for the first time in 2026, as the country's transition toward green and low-carbon energy accelerates, according to an industry report released on Tuesday.

The forecast was published by the China Electricity Council (CEC) in its analysis report on the national power supply and demand for the first quarter of 2026.

Marking the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), the power sector had a strong first quarter driven by rising electricity demand, a greener energy mix and increased investment in renewables, it said.

Figures released by the National Energy Administration show that by the end of March the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power had reached around 1.9 billion kilowatts, up 28.1 percent year-on-year, while renewable energy power generation maintained steady growth, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the country's total electricity output.

Energy investment maintained robust growth in the first three months, giving strong impetus to the rebound of national fixed-asset investment, it said.

Power grid expansion and safety upgrades gathered pace this year, in addition to accelerated investment in hydrogen energy, coal-to-fuel projects and new energy storage, said Xing Yiteng, deputy director-general of the department of development and planning at the NEA.

Private enterprises have also deepened participation in key national energy research initiatives, he added.

The 2026 forecast highlights a fundamental structural shift in China's energy consumption, said Lin Boqiang, head of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University.

"As facilities such as artificial intelligence-driven data centers, 5G base stations and expansive electric vehicle charging networks are highly energy-intensive, China is transitioning from an era where heavy manufacturing dictated power demand to one where the digital and green economies are the primary load drivers," Lin said.

According to the CEC, total electricity consumption reached 2.51 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2 percent.

By the end of March, the country's total installed power generation capacity stood at 3.96 billion kW. Notably, non-fossil energy capacity reached 2.46 billion kW, surging 21.3 percent year-on-year and accounting for 62 percent of the total capacity, it said.

The green transition of the power sector continues to gain strong momentum. Combined newly installed wind and solar power capacity reached 57.16 million kW in the first three months, representing 68.2 percent of all new power generation capacity added nationwide.

Looking ahead, the report predicts that stable macroeconomic growth and the development of new infrastructure will continue to drive steady and rapid electricity demand.

Total power consumption in 2026 is expected to range between 10.9 and 11 trillion kWh, a year-on-year growth of 5 to 6 percent. The maximum power load for the year is projected to reach between 1.57 and 1.63 billion kW, it said.

The council expects the country to add more than 400 million kW of new power generation capacity throughout 2026, with new energy contributing over 300 million kW to that total.

By the end of the year, combined wind and solar power capacity will account for half of China's total installed power generation capacity, with solar capacity alone eclipsing coal for the first time in history, it said.

zhengxin@chinadaily.com.cn