New theory promises to transform chip sector

While China's semiconductor sector navigates intensified trade hurdles and narrows the gap with global competitors, a newly proposed industry theory from Huawei Technologies Co could alter the country's chip development trajectory with far-reaching global implications, experts said.

Tau Scaling Law, introduced by He Tingbo, president of Huawei's semiconductor business department, in a paper submitted to the academic journal Science China Information Sciences, is being described by industry experts as "a significant rethinking" of chip evolution since Moore's Law was first articulated more than six decades ago.

Moore's Law is the observation that the number of transistors on computer chips doubles approximately every two years. It was first made by Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel, in 1965. The trend made computers faster, cheaper and more energy-efficient.

However, with transistors now becoming almost as small as atoms, close to the physical extreme of contemporary manufacturing capabilities, Moore's Law is starting to hit a wall.

Zhou Jianjun, a professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University's School of Integrated Circuits, said that Huawei is looking for a different path to improve performance — not by shrinking transistors any further, but by making a group of chips work better together as a system.

According to He, from Huawei, the whole point of making transistors smaller is to reduce the time it takes for chips to finish tasks. But that old approach is running into physical limits and rising costs. Huawei's new theory says there are other ways to cut down processing time, like by reducing the time it takes for signals to travel between devices, circuits, chips and systems.

Put simply, Moore's Law is like a single runner getting faster and faster through constant improvement. The Tau Scaling Law, by contrast, is like a relay team — no single runner needs to be the world's fastest, but perfect handoffs make the team faster than any solo sprinter, experts said.

Zhou, the professor, said this theory sets a new direction for global semiconductor technology, while also offering a fresh road map for China's domestic industry. "Chip manufacturing no longer needs to rely so heavily on cutting-edge lithography tools, and the strategic role of advanced packaging continues to grow," he added.

The background is instructive. China's semiconductor sector has faced mounting pressure, with the United States blocking shipments of extreme ultraviolet lithography tools and advanced chipmaking equipment from top suppliers.

Huawei said that Tau Scaling Law will allow it to produce a chip with transistor density equivalent to 1.4 nanometers by 2031. In comparison, TSMC, the world's largest advanced chip foundry, plans to roll out 1.4 nm process in 2028.

Huang Leping, chief analyst for global technology strategy at Huatai Securities, noted that Huawei is "using architectural innovation to compensate for the lack of advanced manufacturing process and equipment".

For instance, Huawei's new Kirin chip, which will be out this fall, will use LogicFolding — a multilayer architecture that shortens key wiring and improves transistor density and efficiency.

Zhou Hongyi, founder of 360 Security Group, said that China's chip industry is finally answering a pointed question: When others block China from cutting-edge chip technologies, does China still have a second path?

It is too early to declare Tau Scaling Law as a replacement for Moore's Law, but there is no denying that Chinese semiconductors are moving from single-point breakthroughs to system-level collaboration across the entire semiconductor industrial chain, he said.

Experts said that while Tau Scaling Law opens a promising direction, sustained testing across different chip types, design tools, production ecosystems and diverse real-world applications are still needed.

masi@chinadaily.com.cn