Adapting to climate change vital for agriculture

Editor's note: As traditional methods of increasing agricultural yields through labor and input expansion reach their limits, leveraging climate resources has emerged as a promising avenue for boosting grain production. The Economic Observer spoke to Pan Zhihua, a professor at the College of Resources and Environmental Sciences at China Agricultural University, on how fluctuating climate resources can be efficiently converted into agricultural products. Below are excerpts of the interview. The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

The more severe climate change becomes, the greater the risks it poses to agricultural production. Sharp fluctuations in weather patterns can disrupt crop growth cycles, affecting yields and quality. These effects vary across different stages of crop development, necessitating adaptive measures such as adjusting cropping systems and adopting more resilient crop varieties.

For years, advances in agricultural technology have partially offset the extent to which climate influences agricultural production. Despite China's vast territory and diverse climate conditions, national grain production has consistently increased, albeit with periodic fluctuations.

At the regional level, however, weather often exerts a significant influence on crop yields. Losses in one area may be offset by bumper harvests elsewhere, making the overall effect less visible on a national scale.

Ultimately, agricultural production is the process of converting climate resources into agricultural products. This transformation depends on a wide range of technologies that enable farmers to make effective use of meteorological resources. In this sense, climate conditions play a central role in determining agricultural productivity.

But climate resources are inherently variable. When these fluctuations exceed certain thresholds, they can trigger natural disasters that threaten agricultural production. One of the central challenges for future agriculture is to transform highly variable climate resources into agricultural products and biomass in a stable and efficient manner.

Rising temperatures have expanded the geographic scope of agricultural production. Areas that previously lacked sufficient heat for crop growth are increasingly becoming suitable for cultivation. As a result, China's agricultural frontier is generally shifting northward and upward — from southern regions to northern latitudes, and from lowland plains toward higher elevations.

The arid and semi-arid regions of northwestern China and the fringes of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become important zones for agricultural expansion, particularly in the northern dryland areas.

In theory, climate warming has opened new areas for potential cultivation. However, heat is only one of the conditions required for crop growth; adequate water resources are equally essential. Generally, higher crop yields need more water.

However, in reality, while the potential agricultural frontier is shifting northward, precipitation in these regions has not increased. As a result, if these newly suitable farming areas face water shortages, their agricultural potential may not be fully realized.

Creating favorable environmental conditions is fundamental to enhancing the utilization and value of climate resources. Efforts to maximize the benefits of climate resources generally focus on the efficient use of solar radiation, heat and water. Improvements in these areas ultimately lead to higher crop yields and better product quality.

Experience shows that adopting improved crop varieties, optimizing irrigation practices, refining cultivation techniques and applying fertilizers more efficiently can significantly enhance the utilization of climate resources.

Agricultural development, in many ways, is about adapting to and overcoming weather-related challenges. Establishing a comprehensive national-level climate adaptation framework for agriculture would therefore be both a major achievement and a long-term systemic undertaking.

Policy support will be crucial in this process. Over a decade ago, governments introduced subsidies for agricultural machinery and fertilizers to encourage farmers to invest in productivity-enhancing inputs. In the future, subsidies should place greater emphasis on climate-related technologies, adaptation measures and the efficient use of climate resources.

Governments can also promote the development of meteorology-oriented economic parks, integrating climate services into industrial park planning and making them a key component of local economic development strategies.