AI-enhanced weather forecasting boosts disaster preparedness in China

Meteorological experts said that accurate and timely weather forecasting is critical to disaster prevention, public safety, and people's livelihoods during a news conference held by the State Council Information Office on Tuesday.

Niu Zeyi, assistant researcher at the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, said that, in recent years, typhoons have become increasingly unusual, and forecasting them has grown harder. But rapid advances in artificial intelligence weather models offer new hope.

"Typhoon tracks are largely steered by the subtropical high, whose position and shape are difficult to predict — yet that is exactly where AI models shine," Niu said. "So, our team combined the strengths of the models with those of traditional numerical weather prediction to develop a hybrid typhoon forecasting model that performs well in the track and intensity forecasts."

"During this year's forecasting for Typhoon Bavi, our model made an accurate call 108 hours in advance," he said. "Only when forecasts are accurate, can manpower and resources be deployed where they are needed most during disasters."

Zhang Fanghua, chief forecaster of the National Meteorological Center, said that the center uses Fengyun meteorological satellites, weather radar, and automatic ground observation stations nationwide to collect real-time data, including temperature, air pressure, wind speed, and precipitation, giving the atmosphere a "checkup".

These results are then fed into mathematical equations that describe atmospheric motion, and high-performance computers are used to analyze the atmosphere's checkup report. Finally, forecasters make a "joint diagnosis" by combining various tools and their experience to predict how the weather will evolve, she added.

"Forecast services must stay 'online' 24 hours a day, 365 days a year," Zhang said. "This is especially true during hazardous weather such as rainstorms, typhoons, and severe convective storms. We must issue forecasts and warnings in advance so that the public has enough time to respond calmly."

For Zhao Hujiong, director of the meteorological bureau of Daishan county in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, tracking the weather is a personal mission.

"I was born and raised on an island in a family of fishermen. I put down roots at an island meteorological post and have devoted most of my life to it," he said.

"Daishan is one of China's key fishing counties. Local people live off the sea, and the weather has a direct bearing on the livelihood and safety of every fishing household. My father once told me that weather forecasts can save lives, and that meteorological work is a matter of conscience. I have always kept those words close to my heart," Zhao said.

"We go into fishing ports, board fishing boats, and visit fishing villages. We center our services firmly on the marine economy, fishery safety, and the well-being of island communities," he added.

Zhao Guorong, director of the meteorological observatory of Haibei Tibetan autonomous prefecture in Qinghai province, said that her meteorological observatory has 12 staff members, with an average age of under 35.

"Braving wind, snow, and bitter cold, we have put down roots on the plateau, shouldering the responsibility and mission of keeping our community safe and helping it thrive," she said.

"In Jinyintan, issuing a warning 1 minute earlier can reduce losses for herders' flocks. Making a forecast 1 millimeter more accurate can add a layer of safety for high-altitude events. And improving data resolution by 1 kilometer can give us greater confidence in protecting the Three-River-Source ecosystem," she said.

Cai Yiyou, deputy director of the meteorological bureau of Xiangcheng district in Zhangzhou, Fujian province, said that Zhangzhou is renowned as a land of fish and rice, flowers and fruit. But it is also frequently hit by severe weather such as typhoons, rainstorms, and strong convective storms. Weather events that exceed historical extremes are no longer exceptions.

"In such weather, it is not enough to simply say 'it's going to rain'. We need to tell people where the rain will fall and when the risks will be greatest," Cai said. "Based on local conditions, we provide progressive meteorological services at 12-hour, 6-hour, and 2-hour intervals — peeling back layer after layer like an onion and gradually honing in on the threat. This helps the government designate key precaution areas, preposition rescue forces, and organize evacuations in advance," he said.