Cost concerns set to shape US midterms

The United States will vote on Tuesday in the 2026 midterm elections, a key test of public sentiment toward President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, with economic concerns high on voters' minds.

Held halfway through a president's four-year term, US midterms determine control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as state governorships.

Some early voters in New York said they were using their ballots to voice frustration over the cost of living, soaring gas prices — partly driven by the war with Iran — tariffs, healthcare and immigration raids.

"The cost of living is out of control," said Darrin Stewart, 34, from Brooklyn, after voting for the Working Families Party.

While there is no direct vote for the president in the midterms, the results are important for the way his administration runs, said Van C. Tran, a professor of sociology at the City University of New York Graduate Center.

"At the federal level, midterms can determine whether the president can advance his agenda or faces a Congress controlled by the opposition," Tran said.

"All 435 House seats and roughly one-third of Senate seats are contested. Either chamber can block legislation and spending; the House conducts investigations and can impeach, while the Senate confirms federal judges and senior officials and conducts impeachment trials," he said.

In the weeks before the high-stakes elections, Trump campaigned for Republican candidates, crisscrossing the country from Republican strongholds such as Texas to competitive battleground states.

At least 10 key races, including those in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, could determine control of Congress.

Trump's approval rating rose 1 percentage point to 32 percent from a record low the previous week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday.

Voter interest has been high. By Tuesday, more than 30 million people had voted nationwide, nearly half by mail, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab, which tracks voting. Early turnout was higher than at the same point in the 2018 and 2022 midterms, the lab found.

Tran said he expects turnout to be higher in Democratic-leaning states, driven by a strong desire for change, and lower in Republican-leaning states.

Republicans hold a 218-214 majority in the House, in addition to an independent who caucuses with them. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Two seats are vacant.

In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, Democrats aim to gain control, also requiring a net gain of four seats.

Voters will also elect governors in 36 of the 50 states and choose state legislators in nearly every state.

As of Tuesday, Republicans held nearly 55 percent of state legislative seats nationwide, compared with almost 44 percent for Democrats, according to Ballotpedia.

At least 250 million US citizens are eligible to vote in this year's elections. More than 100 million are expected to cast ballots if turnout matches the 2022 midterms.

The US electorate is also becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, according to a Pew Research Center report published last month.

White Americans still make up the majority of eligible voters, at 61 percent, but their share has declined since 2006, Pew found. Asian Americans are the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group among eligible voters.

Between 2022 and 2026, the number of eligible Asian American voters rose by 2.3 million to 13.7 million, an increase of about 20 percent, Pew said.

Christine Chen, executive director of Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote, a nonprofit that mobilizes Asian American and Pacific Islander voters, said the community had become a key voting bloc.

At least 90 percent of Asian American and Pacific Islander registered voters surveyed by the organization said they planned to vote in the midterms, up from 84 percent in 2022 and 86 percent in 2018.

The group's top concerns were the cost of living and inflation, mirroring broader national concerns. Most respondents said these issues were "very or extremely" important in deciding how they would vote.

The number of eligible Hispanic voters rose by 5.2 million, or 16 percent, from 2022 to 2026, reaching 39 million, Pew found.

The number of eligible black voters grew more slowly, rising 6 percent to 31 million over the same period.

Tran said both parties would increasingly need to build diverse coalitions.

"Democrats cannot assume that demographic growth will deliver votes, and Republicans have demonstrated that they can expand their support among voters of color," he said.

For the midterms, he said, the decisive question is how changing voter preferences interact with turnout in competitive states and districts, a factor that depends on each party's efforts to mobilize its supporters.